PHNOM PENH: As Prime Minister Manmohan Singh arrives in Phnom Penh on Sunday, he is likely to hear a common refrain in this part of the world: India is sorely needed here, but India is too slow.
It's a critical time for Asean countries -- they are struggling to remain cohesive and stay relevant. They are caught in a bruising territorial dispute with the big Heavy in the region, China. And now the even bigger US is sailing into their waters and telling them how to stand up to China, with its help. US defense secretary Leon Panetta told everyone he who would listen on Friday, "we are deepening our military engagement with our allies and partners in this region in order to ensure that we are able to promote security and prosperity in this region for many years to come."
For many, India is a natural balancer in this region. India struck roots here hundreds of years ago, and there are signs all around. But in the current strategic debate roiling the region, India is a peripheral presence. India's only statement so far has been to endorse the importance of ensuring freedom of navigation and mineral resources in the troubled wats of the South China Sea. In a joint statement with the Chinese, India also emphasized its stakes in the Asia-Pacific. That lone position by the MEA, India believes may have absolved it of all other responsibility. With $80 billion in bilateral trade, India needs a louder ASEAN policy.
"Asean needs India now, not 10 years later," says Kavi Chongkittavorn, a regional expert, of the Jakarta-based ERIA group. "we need strategic support from India about the way forward. How do we deal with the advent of big powers and still retain our relevance?" there is much talk about "Asean-led" and the "centrality" of Asean, but everyone knows its in danger of being swamped.
China watchers here say Beijing is likely to get more tough in the next six months, as the leadership transition will only be completed by next March. This is the time, they say, India needs to ramp up its engagement and support in this region. But there is no Indian voice that is heard here. Seoung Rathavy, secretary of state of the Cambodian foreign ministry, said 200 senior officials have gathered here to discuss the agenda of the key summits. She told journalists, "implementation of a declaration of conduct on the South China Sea is crucial for political and social stability of Asean."
The South China Sea disputes would be discussed at every meeting in the several summits that will be held here. The Chinese are unlikely to agree to the declaration of conduct on the issue, regarding it as their sovereign territory. Indonesian experts, familiar with their country's position, said very little forward movement would be expected.
For many, the US "pivot" is a mixed blessing. While many countries here are happy to get external support as they deal with the rise of China, there remains some uncertainty about whether the US would actually come to their help. For many, Vietnam and Philippines have been "burnt". In 2011, the US stopped short of fully backing up these countries during their respective stand-offs with China on the South China Sea.
Cambodia needs the kind of defence interest from India like Vietnam has. India should offer joint exercises with everyone in this region. Most of them have old naval fleets, and even with modest means, India can help upgrade them. In fact, India needs to work harder with naal cooperation with all the ASEAN countries. In 2011, Indian naval vessels paid port calls to many in the region before ending up in Shanghai. That should become a run-of-the-mill affair. A look at the map will show how India, with its still superior navy, can successfully block off the Malacca Straits for the Chinese if a conflict breaks out in the Himalayas. For India to carry out a successful blockade, it needs all the littoral countries on its side.
India, many Asean analysts here believe, should openly reiterate its position on an issue which will deeply affect India's own future. There is a sense that India is piggybacking on the US. Even Cambodia, which is believed to be close to China, is crying out for an alternative partner. The India linkages are for all to see, from the Ganesha idols to the Mekong river.
"Connectivity" is India's mantra but it's China that's putting stakes on the ground. China is doing more on the Mekong river and China is building the Kunming-Singapore links, while India's trilateral highway to Thailand through Myanmar will take many more years to realise. The wasted opportunities are stacking up.
Where is India, we need it, Asean says
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Where is India, we need it, Asean says
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Where is India, we need it, Asean says
